Water Productivity Journal (WPJ) Quarterly Publication

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Civil Engineering, Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA – 22904, USA

2 Professor, Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

3 Professor of Hydroinformatics, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA, Delft, The Netherlands

4 Research Assistant, Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

10.22034/wpj.2021.272369.1030

Abstract

Pre-monsoon (March-May) flash flood in the northeast Haor region of Bangladesh has drawn much attention due to its early onset, high frequency, and adverse impact on the Boro crop. To understand its past changes and future occurrences, a trend analysis is carried out on the observed 3 - hourly water level data and daily rainfall data of the Haor region using the Mann-Kendall test, Trend-Free Pre-Whitening test, and Sens slope estimator. A statistically significant increasing trend is found for the relative water level. The trend in rainfall is increasing, though it is not statistically significant. From the observed record, the peak of the flash floods is found to be arriving early in late March-early April (instead of late April-early May), coinciding with the harvesting period of the Boro crop. The early arrival of the flash flood can cause catastrophic damage to the Boro crop in future flash floods. None of the current Boro varieties BRRI dhan28, BRRI 36, BRRI dhan69, BRRI dhan88 are safer to save Boro from early flash floods experienced in recent years. To escape the Boro crop from an early flash flood, Boro varieties with a shorter growth duration should be introduced. This helps crop productivity.

Keywords

Main Subjects

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