Water Productivity Journal (WPJ) Quarterly Publication

Document Type : Original Research Paper


1 Ph.D. Student, Civil Engineering, Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA – 22904, USA

2 Professor, Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

3 Professor of Hydroinformatics, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA, Delft, The Netherlands

4 Research Assistant, Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh



Pre-monsoon (March-May) flash flood in the northeast Haor region of Bangladesh has drawn much attention due to its early onset, high frequency, and adverse impact on the Boro crop. To understand its past changes and future occurrences, a trend analysis is carried out on the observed 3 - hourly water level data and daily rainfall data of the Haor region using the Mann-Kendall test, Trend-Free Pre-Whitening test, and Sens slope estimator. A statistically significant increasing trend is found for the relative water level. The trend in rainfall is increasing, though it is not statistically significant. From the observed record, the peak of the flash floods is found to be arriving early in late March-early April (instead of late April-early May), coinciding with the harvesting period of the Boro crop. The early arrival of the flash flood can cause catastrophic damage to the Boro crop in future flash floods. None of the current Boro varieties BRRI dhan28, BRRI 36, BRRI dhan69, BRRI dhan88 are safer to save Boro from early flash floods experienced in recent years. To escape the Boro crop from an early flash flood, Boro varieties with a shorter growth duration should be introduced. This helps crop productivity.


Main Subjects

Ahmed, A.U. (2006). Bangladesh climate change impacts and vulnerability: a synthesis. Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Bangladesh.
Basher, Md., Stiller-Reeve, M., Islam, A.S. and Scott, B. (2018). Assessing extreme rainfall trends over the northeast regions of Bangladesh. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 134(1-12): 441–452.
Biswas, J.K. (2017). Boro Rice for Haor Area: Some Suggestions. Daily Sun. https://www.daily-sun.com/printversion/details/269361/Boro-Rice-for-Haor-Area:-Some-Suggestions. Accessed on 1 June 2021. BRRI. (2021). Bangladesh Rice Knowledge Bank (BRKB), Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI). http://knowledgebank-brri.org/brri-rice-varieties/boro-rice-varieties/. Accessed on 30 May 2021.
Burn, D.H. and Hag, Elnur M.A. (2001). Climate change impact using hydrologic variables. Report for CCAF project, Environment Canada.
Burn, DH. (1994). Hydrologic effects of climatic change in West Central Canada. Journal of Hydrology, 160(1-4): 53–70.
BWDB. (2006). Mathematical Modelling with Hydrological Studies and Terrestrial Survey under the Haor Rehabilitation Scheme. Bangladesh Water Development Board, Bangladesh.
Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS). (2012). Master Plan of Haor Area. Volume 1, Summary Report, Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Ministry of Water Resources, Bangladesh Haor and Wetland Development Board, Bangladesh.
Chang, C.K., Ghani, A., Puay, H.T. and Othman, M.A. (2017). Homogeneity testing and trends analysis in long term rainfall data for Sungai Pahang River Basin over 40 years records. In Proceedings of the 37th IAHR World Congress, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Douglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M. and Kroll, C.N. (2000). Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240(1-2): 90–105.
FFWC (Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre). (2020). Bangladesh water development board. Accessed January 19, 2020. http://www.ffwc.gov.bd/.
Gadedjisso-Tossou, A., Adjegan, K.I. and Kablan, A.K.M. (2021). Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo. Sci, 3(1): 17.
Gan, T.Y. and Kwong, Y.T.J. (1991). Identification of warming trends in northern Alberta and southern northwest territories by the non-parametric Kendall’s test. In Using Hydrometric Data to Detect and Monitor Climatic Change. Proceedings of NHRI Workshop No. 8: 43-56.
Gan, TY. (1998). Hydroclimatic trends and possible climatic warming in the Canadian Prairies. Water Resources Research, 34(11): 3009–3015.
Hamed, K.H. (2008). Trend detection in hydrologic data: The Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. Journal of Hydrology, 349(3–4): 350-363.
Kendall, M.G. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edition, Charles Griffin, London, UK.
Khalequzzaman, M. (2019). Early flash floods in the haor region: A new normal? Daily Star. Accessed May 5, 2019. <https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/environment/news/early-flash-floods-the-haor-region-new-normal-1726942.
Khan, M.J.U., Islam, A.S., Das, M.K., Mohammed, K., Bala, S.K. and Islam, G.T. (2019). Observed trends in climate extremes over Bangladesh from 1981 to 2010. Climate Research, 77(1): 45-61.
Khan, M.N.H., Mia, M.Y. and Hossain, M.R. (2012). Impacts of flood on crop production in Haor areas of two Upazillas in Kishoregonj. Journal of Environmental Science and Natural Resources, 5(1): 193-198. Kocsis, T., Kovács-Székely, I. and Anda, A. (2020). Homogeneity tests and non-parametric analyses of tendencies in precipitation time series in Keszthely. Western Hungary. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139(3): 849-859.
Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kam, J. and Thurner, K. (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374(1-2): 171-183.
Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, E.F. and Wallis, J.R. (1994). Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. Journal of Climate, 7(4): 586–607.
Mallick, J., Talukdar, S., Alsubih, M., Salam, R., Ahmed, M., Kahla, N.B. and Shamimuzzaman, M. (2021). Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 143(1): 823-841.
Mann, H.B. (1945). Non-Parametric Tests against Trend. Econmetrica, 13: 245-259.
Meshram, S.G., Kahya, E., Meshram, C., Ghorbani, M.A., Ambade, B. and Mirabbasi, R. (2020). Long-term temperature trend analysis associated with agriculture crops. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 140: 1139-1159. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03137-z
Mirabbasi, R., Ahmadi, F. and Jhajharia, D. (2020). Comparison of parametric and non-parametric methods for trend identification in groundwater levels in Sirjan plain aquifer, Iran. Hydrology Research, 51(6): 1455-1477. doi: 10.2166/nh.2020.041
Mondal, A., Kundu, S. and Mukhopadhyay, A. (2012). Rainfall trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test: A case study of north-eastern part of Cuttack district, Orissa. International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental Sciences, 2(1): 70-78.
National Weather Service (NWS). (2016). (online). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce, USA.
NIRAPAD. (2017). Bangladesh: Flash Flood Situation - April 19, 2017. < https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/bangladesh-flash-flood-situation-april-19-2017.
Northeast Regional Water Management Plan, Bangladesh Flood Action Plan - 6 (NERP FAP - 6). (1995). Wetland Resources Specialist Study, Northeast Regional Water Management Plan, Bangladesh Flood Action Plan 6, Bangladesh.
Nowreen, S., Murshed, S.B., Islam, A.S., Bhaskaran, B. and Hasan, M.A. (2015). Changes of rainfall extremes around the haor basin areas of Bangladesh using multi-member ensemble RCM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119(1-2): 363-377. Pettitt, AN. (1979). A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat, 28(2): 126–135.
Rashid, M.M. and Yasmeen, R. (2017). Cold injury and flash flood damage in boro rice cultivation in Bangladesh: A Review. Bangladesh Rice Journal, 21(1): 13-25.
Roy, B., Islam, A.K.M.S., Islam, G.T., Khan, M.J. U., Bhattacharya, B., Ali, M.H., Khan, A.S., Hossain, M.S., Sarker, G.C. and Pieu, N.M. (2019). Frequency Analysis of Flash Floods for Establishing New Danger Levels for the Rivers in the Northeast Haor Region of Bangladesh. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 24(4): 05019004.Doi: https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001760
Sattari, M.T., Mirabbasi, R., Jarhan, S., Shaker Sureh, F. and Ahmad, S. (2020). Trend and abrupt change analysis in water quality of Urmia Lake in comparison with changes in lake water level. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 192: 623, DOI: 10.1007/s10661-020-08577-8
Sen, P.K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American statistical association, 63(324): 1379-1389.
Shahid, S. (2009). Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969-2003. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45(3): 375-389.
Shahid, S. (2010). Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology, 30(15): 2299-2313.
Shahid, S. (2011). Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theoretical and applied climatology, 104(3-4): 489-499.
Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M. (2013). IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Sultana, T. 2015. Flash flood forecasting using estimated precipitation by global satellite mapping in the north-east region of Bangladesh. M.Sc. thesis, Dept. of Water Resources Engineering, Bangladesh Univ. of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh.
Tabari, H., Somee, B.S. and Zadeh, M.R. (2011). Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran, Atmospheric Research, 100(1): 132-140. Thiel, H. (1950). A rank-invariant mathod of linear and ploynomial regression analysis III’, Proceedings Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie Van Wetenschappen, pp. 1897-1912.
Von Storch, H. (1995). Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques, von Storch H, Navarra A (eds). Springer-Verlag: Berlin, Germany, pp. 11–26.
Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. (2002). The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series, Hydrological processes, 16(9): 1807-1829.
Yusoff, S.H.M., Hamzah, F.M., Jaafar, O. and Tajudin, H. (2021). Long Term Trend Analysis of Upstream and Middle-Stream River in Langat Basin, Selangor, Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana, 50(3): 629-644.
Zhang, X., Vincent, L.A., Hogg, W.D. and Niitsoo, A. (2000). Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere–Ocean, 38(3): 395–429.
Zhang, X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D. and Yuzyk, T.R. (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4): 987–998.