A Review on the Implications of Changing Climate on the Water Productivity of Himalayan Glaciers

Document Type : Review Paper

Authors

1 Consultant, Water Res. Management Centre, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India

2 Professor & Head, Water Res. Management Centre, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India

3 Chair Professor, Water Res. Management Centre, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India

4 Researcher, Department of Water Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Iran

Abstract

The Himalayas are one of the important and highest mountain ranges of the world spread over several countries. The region is rich in biodiversity and water resources. It is known as the third pole because of the largest glacier and ice reserve outside the two poles. This complex zone is highly critical and sensitive to the temperature fluctuations which is clearly visible in the changing dynamics of the glaciers present in the Himalayan region. Glaciers are an ideal sensor in this highly glaciated region to detect the causes and impacts of global warming. They form the backbone of this ecosystem especially the economy which makes the studies of the glaciers and climate change more important. This paper reviews the changing climatic scenario of the region with emphasis on the impacts on the glacier reserves. Various research findings have been put forth such as changing stream flows, decreased precipitation, increased frequency of extreme climate events, glacier shrinkage, expansion of glacier lakes and the glacier lake outburst floods. This detailed review of the previous studies will help in formulating the required strategies and management practices in the Himalayan region especially the water resources.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Abdullah, T., Romshoo, S. A. and Rashid, I. (2020). The satellite observed glacier mass changes over the Upper Indus Basin during 2000-2012. Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1030/s41598-020-71281-7.
Ali, S. H. B., Shafqat, M. N., Eqani, S. A. M. A. S. and Shah, S. T. A. (2019). Trends of climate change in the upper Indus basin region, Pakistan: implications for cryosphere. Environmental Monitoring Assessment, 191: 51, doi: 10.1007/s10661-018-7184-3.
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J. (2004). Spatial and Temporal Variations in Precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, Global Teleconnections and Hydrological Implications. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8: 47-61.
Bajracharya, S. R. and Mool, P. (2010). Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Mount Everest Region, Nepal. Annals of Glaciology, 50: 81-86.
Bajracharya, S. R., Maharjan, S. B. and Shrestha, F. (2011). Glaciers Shrinking in Nepal Himalaya. In J Blanco and H Kheradmand (Eds.) Climate Change-Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects, ISBN: 978-953-307-419-1. pp. 445-457.
Bali, R., Agarwal, K. K., Ali, S. N. and Srivastava P. (2011). Is the Recessional Pattern of Himalayan Glaciers Suggestive of Anthropogenically Induced Global Warming? Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 4: 1087-1093.
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2005). Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate on Water Availability in Snow-dominated Regions. Nature, 438: 303-309.
Berthier, E., Arnaud, Y., Kumar, R., Ahmad, S., Wagnon, P. and Chevallier, P. (2007). Remote Sensing Estimates of Glacier Mass Balances in the Himachal Pradesh (Western Himalaya, India). Remote Sensing of Environment, 108: 327-338.
Bhutiyani, M. R., Kale, V. S. and Pawar, N. J. (2007). Long-term Trends in Maximum, Minimum and Mean Annual Air Temperatures Across the Northwestern Himalaya During the Twentieth Century. Climatic Change, 85: 159-177.
Bhutiyani, M. R., Kale, V. S. and Pawar, N. J. (2010). Climate Change and the Precipitation Variations in the Northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006. International Journal of Climatology, 30: 535-548.
Bhutiyani, M. R., Kale, V. S. and Pawar, N. J. (2008). Changing the stream flow patterns in the rivers of Northwestern Himalaya: implication of global warming in the 20th century. Current Science, 95(5): 618-626.
Bolch, T., Buchroithner, M., Pieczonka, T. and Kunert, A. (2008). Planimetric and Volumetric Glacier Changes in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal, since 1962 Using Corona, Landsat TM and ASTER Data. Journal of Glaciology, 54: 592-600.
Bolch, T., Pieczonka T. and Benn, D. I. (2011). Multi-decadal Mass Loss of Glaciers in the Everest Area (Nepal Himalaya) Derived from Stereo Imagery. The Cryosphere, 5: 349-358.
Braun, L. N., Grabs, W. and Rana, B. (1993). Application of a Conceptual PrecipitationRunoff Model in the Langtang Kfaola Basin, Nepal Himalaya. Proceedings of the Kathmandu Symposium, November 1992. IAHS publ, no. 218: 221-237.
Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kown, W. T., Laprise, R., Magana Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menendez, C. G., Raisanen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A. and Whetton, P. (2007). Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis et al. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York. pp. 996.
Cruz, R. V., Harasawa, H., Lal, M., Wu, S., Anokhin, Y., Punsalmaa, B., Honda, Y., Safari, M., Li, C. and Huu Ninh, N. (2007). Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In ML Parry, OF Canziani, JP Palutikof, PJ Van Der Linden, CE Hanson (Eds.) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp. 469-506.
Dash, S. K., Jenamani, R. K., Kalsi, S. R. and Panda S. K. (2007). Some Evidence of Climate Change in Twentieth-century India. Climatic Change, 85: 299-321.
Dimri, A. P. and Dash, S. K. (2011). Wintertime Climatic Trends in the Western Himalayas. Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0201-y.
Ding, Y., Liu, S., Li, J. and Shangguan, D. (2006). The Retreat of Glaciers in Response to Recent Climate Warming in Western China. Annals of Glaciology, 43: 97-105.
Diodato, N., Bellocchi, G. and Tartari, G. (2011). How do Himalayan areas respond to global warming? International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.2340.
Du, M., Kawashima, S., Yonemura, S., Zhang, X. and Chen, S. (2004). Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years. Global and Planetary Change, 41(3): 241-249.
Evans, S. G. and Clague, J. J. (1994). Recent Climatic Change and Catastrophic Geomorphic Processes in Mountain Environments. Geomorphology, 10: 107-128.
Fowler, H. J. and Archer, D. R. (2005). Hydroclimatological Variability in the Upper Indus Basin and Implications for Water Resources. Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change—Impact Assessment and Decision Making, 295: 131–138.
Fukushima, Y., Watanabe, O. and Higuchi K. (1991). Estimation of Streamflow Change by Global Warming in a Glacier-covered High Mountain Area of the Nepal Himalaya. 20th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna, Austria, Aug. 11-24: 181-188.
Ganjoo, R. K. (2010). Are secular movements in the glaciers of Ladakh Mountains, Ladakh (J & K State, India) a response to climate change? International Symposium Benefiting from Earth Observation, ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Oct. 4-6. 
Gautam, M. R., Timilsina, G. R. and Acharya, K. (2013). Climate Change in the Himalayas. Policy Research Working Paper, 6516, The World Bank Research Group Environment and Energy Team, June 2013.
Guhathakurta, P. and Rajeevan, M. (2008). Trends in the Rainfall Pattern over India. International Journal of Climatology, 28: 1453-1469.
Haeberli, W. and Hoelzle, M. (1995). Application of Inventory Data for Estimating Characteristics of and Regional Climate-change Effects on Mountain Glaciers: A Pilot Study with the European Alps. Annals of Glaciology, 21: 206-212.
Hewitt, K. (2005). The Karakoram Anomaly? Glacier Expansion and the ‘Elevation Effect,’ Karakoram Himalaya. Mountain Research and Development, 25: 332-340.
Immerzeel, W. W., Droogers, P., De Jong, S. M. and Bierkens, M. F. P. (2009). Large-scale monitoring of snow cover and runoff simulation in Himalayan river basins using remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment, 113: 40-49.
Immerzeel, W. W., Van Beek, L. P. H. and Bierkens, M. F. P. (2010). Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers. Science 328: 1382-1385.
Immerzeel W. W, van Beek, L. P., Konz, M., Shrestha A. B and Bierkens, M. F. (2011) Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4.
IPCC. (2018). In: Global Warming of 1.5oC. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.
IPCC. (2019). Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In press Jhajharia, D. and Singh, V. P. (2011). Trends in Temperature, Diurnal Temperature Range and Sunshine Duration in Northeast India. International Journal of Climatology, 31: 1353-1367.
Kargel, J. S., Cogley, J. G., Leonard, G. J., Haritashya, U. and Byers, A. (2011). Himalayan Glaciers: The Big Picture Is a Montage. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108: 14709-14710.
Kaser, G., Großhauser, M. and Marzeion, B. (2010). Contribution Potential of Glaciers to Water Availability in Different Climate Regimes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107: 20223-20227.
Kehrwald, N. M., Thompson, L., Tandong, Y., Mosley-Thompson, E., Schotterer, U., Alfimov, V., Beer, J., Eikenberg, J. and Davis, M. (2008). Mass Loss on Himalayan Glacier Endangers Water Resources. Geophysical Research Letters, 35: L22503, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035556.
Khattak, M. S., Babel, M. S., and Sharif, M., (2011). Hydro-meteorological Trends in the Upper Indus River Basin in Pakistan. Clim Res, 46: 103-119.
Kothawale, DR. and Rupa Kumar, K. (2005). On the Recent Changes in Surface Temperature Trends over India. Geophysical Research Letters, 32: L18714, doi:10.1029/2005GL023528.
Koul, M. N. and Ganjoo, R. K. (2010). Impact of inter-and intra-annual variation in weather parameters on mass balance and equilibrium line altitude of Naradu Glacier (Himachal Pradesh), NW Himalaya, India. Climatic change, 99: 119-139.
Kulkarni, A. V., Rathore, B. P., Singh, S. K. and Bahuguna, I. M. (2011). Understanding Changes in the Himalayan Cryosphere Using Remote Sensing Techniques. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 32: 601-615.
Kulkarni, A. V., Bahuguna, I. M., Rathore, B. P., Singh, S. K., Randhawa, S. S., Sood, R. K. and Dhar, S. (2007). Glacial retreat in Himalaya using Indian Remote Sensing satellite data. Current Science, 92: 69-74.
Kumar, K., Dumka, R. K., Miral, M. S., Satyal, G. S. and Pant, M. (2008). Estimation of Retreat Rate of Gangotri Glacier Using Rapid Static and Kinematic GPS Survey. Current Science, 94: 258-262.
Kumar, V., Singh, P. and Singh, V. (2007). Snow and glacier melt contribution in the Beas River at Pandoh Dam, Himachal Pradesh, India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52: 376-388.
Lindsey, R. (2020). Climate Change: Global Sea Level. Climate Watch Magazine. Liu, X. and Chen, B. (2000). Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau During Recent Decades. International Journal of Climatology, 20: 1729-1742.
Liu, X., Cheng, Z., Yan, L. and Yin, Z. Y. (2009). Elevation Dependency of Recent and Future Minimum Surface Air Temperature Trends in the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings. Global and Planetary Change, 68: 164-174.
Liu, X., Yin, Z. Y., Shao, X. and Qin, N. (2006). Temporal Trends and Variability of Daily Maximum and Minimum, Extreme Temperature Events, and Growing Season Length over the Eastern and Central Tibetan Plateau During 1961–2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111: D19109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006915.
Lucas-Picher, P., Christensen, J. H., Saeed, F., Kumar, P., Asharaf, S., Ahrens, B., Wiltshire, A., Jacob, D. and Hagemann, S., (2011). Can regional climate models represent the Indian monsoon? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12: 849-868.
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., De Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T. Y. and Kram, T. (2000). IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 92-9169-113-5. 
Pandey, A. C., Ghosh, S. and Nathawat, MS. (2011). Evaluating patterns of temporal glacier changes in Greater Himalayan Range, Jammu and Kashmir, India. Geocarto International, 26: 321-338.
Qin, J., Yang, K., Liang, S. and Guo, X. (2009). The Altitudinal Dependence of Recent Rapid Warming over the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic Change, 97: 321-327. 
Raina, V. K. (2009). Himalayan Glaciers: A Stateof-art Review of Glacial Studies, Glacial Retreat and Climate Change. MOEF Discussion Paper. Science & Public Policy Institute Reprint Series.
Rathore, B. P., Kulkarni, A. V. and Sherasia, N. K. (2009). Understanding Future Changes in Snow and Glacier Melt Runoff Due to Global Warming in Wangar Gad Basin, India. Current Science, 97: 1077-1081.
Rees, H. G. and Collins, D. N. (2006). Regional Differences in Response of Flow in Glacier Fed Himalayan Rivers to Climatic Warming. Hydrological Processes, 20: 2157-2169.
Ren, J., Qin, D., Kang, S., Hou, S., Pu, J. and Jing, Z. (2004). Glacier variations and climate warming and drying in the central Himalayas. Chinese Science Bulletin, 49: 65-69.
Reynolds, J. M. and Taylor, P. J. (2004). Review on: Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in the Hindu KushHimalaya Region: Bhutan. Mountain Research and Development, 24(3): 272-274.
Romshoo, S. A., Dar, R. A., Rashid, I., Marazi, A., Ali, N. and Zaz, S. N. (2015). Implications of shrinking cryosphere under changing climate on the streamflows in the Lidder catchment in the Upper Indus Basin, India. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine research, 47(4): 627-644.
Romshoo, S. A., Bashir, J. and Rashid, I. (2020a). Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02787-2.
Romshoo, S. A., Fayaz, M., Meraj, G., Bahugana, I. M. (2020b). Satellite observed glacier recession in the Kashmir Himalaya, India, from 1980 to 2018.
Scherler, D., Bookhagen, B. and Strecker, M. R. (2011). Spatially Variable Response of Himalayan Glaciers to Climate Change Affected by Debris Cover. Nature Geoscience 4: 156-159.
Schild, A. (2008). ICIMOD’s Position on Climate Change and Mountain Systems. Mountain Research and Development, 28: 328-331.
Shah, M. I., Khan, A., Akbar, T. A., Hassan, Q. K., Khan, A. J. and Dewan, A. (2020). Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region of Upper Indus Basin. Royal Societ Open Science 7: 191957 doi: 10.1098/rsos.191957.
Shekhar, M. S., Chand, H., Kumar, S., Srinivasa, K. and Ganju, A. (2010). Climate-change studies in the western Himalaya. Annals of Glaciology, 51(54): 105-112.
Shilpakar, R. B., Shakya, N. M. and Hiratsuka, A. (2009). Impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff: A case study of Tamakoshi basin in Nepal. International Symposium on Society for Social Management Systems, SSMS2009, Kochi, Japan, Internet Journal, SMS09-124.
Shrestha, A. B. and Devkota, L. (2010). Climate change in the Eastern Himalayas: Observed trends and model projections; Climate change impact and vulnerability in the Eastern Himalayas- Technical Report 1, Kathmandu, Nepal. ICIMOD. ISBN: 978-92-9115-153-0.
Shrestha, A. B., Wake, C. P., Mayewski, P. A. and Dibb, J. E. (1999). Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971-94. Journal of Climate, 12: 2775-2786.
Singh, P. and Bengtsson, L. (2004). Hydrological Sensitivity of a Large Himalayan Basin to Climate Change. Hydrological Processes, 18: 2363-2385.
Singh, P. and Kumar, N. (1997). Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Hydrological Response of a Snow and Glacier Melt Runoff Dominated Himalayan River. Journal of Hydrology, 193: 316-350.
Singh, P., Umesh, K. H. and Kumar, N. (2008). Modelling and estimation of different components of streamflow for Gangotri Glacier basin, Himalayas/Modélisation et estimation des différentes composantes de l’écoulement fluviatile du bassin du Glacier Gangotri, Himalaya. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53: 309-322.
Sontakke, N. A., Singh, H. N. and Singh, N. (2009). Monitoring Physiographic Rainfall Variation for Sustainable Management of Water Bodies in India. In MK Jha Springer (Ed.) Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters: Vulnerability, Preparedness and Mitigation, The Netherlands. pp. 293-331.
Tayal, S. (2019). Climate Change Impacts on Himalayan Glaciers and Implications on Energy Security of India. TERI Discussion Paper, New Delhi: The Energy and Resource Institute, India.
Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M. E. and Brecher, H. H. (2011). Tropical glaciers, recorders and indicators of climate change, are disappearing globally. Annals of Glaciology, 52: 23-34.
Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M. E., Lin, P. N., Henderson, K. and Mashiotta, T. A. (2003). Tropical Glacier and Ice Core Evidence of Climate Change on Annual to Millennial Time Scales. Climatic Change, 59: 137-155.
Tse-ring, K., Sharma, E., Chettri, N. and Shrestha (Eds), A. (2010). Climate Change Vulnerability of Mountain Ecosystems in the Eastern Himalayas-Synthesis report. Kathmandu, ICIMOD. ISBN: 978-92-9115-141-7.
Venkatesh, T. N., Kulkarni, A. V. and Srinivasan, J. (2011). Relative effect of slope and equilibrium line altitude on the retreat of Himalayan glaciers. The Cryosphere Discuss, 5: 2571-2604.
Wang, B., Bao, Q., Hoskins, B., Wu, G. and Liu, Y. (2008). Tibetan Plateau Warming and Precipitation Changes in East Asia. Geophysical Research Letters, 35: L14702, doi:10.1029/2008GL034330.
Watanabe, T., Lamsal, D. and Ives, J. D. (2009). Evaluating the growth characteristics of a glacial lake and its degree of danger of outburst flooding: Imja Glacier, Khumbu Himal, Nepal. Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift-Norwegian Journal of Geography, 63: 255-267.
Wu, S., Yin, Y., Zheng, D. and Yang, Q. (2007). Climatic Trends over the Tibetan Plateau During 1971–2000. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 17: 141-151.
Xu, Z. X., Gong, T. L. and Li, J. Y. (2008). Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau— regional temperature and precipitation. Hydrological Processes, 22(16): 3056-3065. 
Xu, J., Grumbine, R. E., Shrestha, A., Eriksson, M., Yang, X., Wang, Y. and Wilkes. A. (2009). The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods. Conservation Biology, 23: 520-530.
Yang, X., Zhang, T., Qin, D., Kang, S. and Qin, X. (2011). Characteristics and Changes in Air Temperature and Glacier’s Response on the North Slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest). Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 43: 147-160.
Yang, X., Zhang, Y., Zhang, W., Yan, Y., Wang, Z., Ding, M. and Chu, D. (2006). Climate Change in Mt. Qomolangma Region since 1971. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 16: 326-336.
Yao, T., Pu, J., Lu, A., Wang, Y. and Yu, W. (2007). Recent Glacial Retreat and Its Impact on Hydrological Processes on the Tibetan Plateau, China, and Surrounding Regions. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 39: 642-650.
Yong, N., Zhang, Y., Liu, L. and Zhang, J. (2010). Glacial change in the vicinity of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), central high Himalayas since 1976. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20: 667-686.
You, Q., Kang, S., Wu, Y. and Yan, Y. (2007). Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo river basin during 1961–2005. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 17(4): 409-420.
You, Q., Kang, S., Aguilar, E. and Yan, Y. (2008). Changes in Daily Climate Extremes in the Eastern and Central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D07101, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009389.
Yunling, H., and Yiping, Z. (2005). Climate Change from 1960 to 2000 in the Lancang River Valley, China. Mountain Research and Development, 25: 341-348.
Zaz, S. N., Romshoo, S. A., Ramkumar, T. K., and Babu, V. Y. (2019). Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19: 15-37.